Vianense 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa: Result & Stats

Vianense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lusitânia Lourosa

12/3/2023

Liga 3 · Round 12Estádio Dr. José de Matos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vianense30%

×Draw31%

Lusitânia Lourosa40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VianenseExpected goals in this matchLusitânia Lourosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.08

Vianense

0.89

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.08

Lusitânia Lourosa creates 21% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 46 away

0.57

creates per match

1.02

1.14

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Vianense

0.57

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.02

allows per match

Vianense

1.14

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vianense+0.00on par

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vianense ↓

Lusitânia Lourosa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Vianense or draw

60%

Vianense or Lusitânia Lourosa

69%

Draw or Lusitânia Lourosa

70%

Winning margin

Vianense wins by 2+

10%

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Vianense 1+ goals

59%

Vianense 2+ goals

22%

Vianense 3+ goals

6%

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals

66%

Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals

29%

Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vianense (draw refunded)

43%

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vianense at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Lusitânia Lourosa away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.20 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vianense attack 0.57 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.89

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.02 + Vianense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vianense scores more

30%

level

31%

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more

40%

Lusitânia Lourosa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lusitânia Lourosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff