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Lusitânia Lourosa vs Vianense — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round 2022

Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vianense
Vianense
5/7/2023Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion RoundCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round · Promotion Round - 2Estádio do Lusitânia FC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lusitânia Lourosa45%
×Draw28%
Vianense26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Vianense
0.91

Lusitânia Lourosa creates 42% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Lusitânia Lourosa
1.00
Vianense
1.14

allows per match

Lusitânia Lourosa
0.67
Vianense
1.57

finishing

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par
Vianense+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitânia Lourosa ↓

Vianense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lusitânia Lourosa or draw
74%
Lusitânia Lourosa or Vianense
72%
Draw or Vianense
55%

Winning margin

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+
21%
Vianense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals
72%
Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals
37%
Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals
14%
Vianense 1+ goals
60%
Vianense 2+ goals
23%
Vianense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)
63%
Vianense (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitânia Lourosa at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Vianense away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.00 + Vianense defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Vianense attack 1.14 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more
45%
level
28%
Vianense scores more
26%

Lusitânia Lourosa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lusitânia Lourosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round: Lusitânia Lourosa 0–0 Vianense

Lusitânia Lourosa and Vianense drew 0-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio do Lusitânia FC in Lourosa.