Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Viana / Real Codó vs ITZ Sport — Maranhense - 2 2026

Viana / Real Codó
Viana / Real Codó
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ITZ Sport
ITZ Sport
11/4/2024Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Renné de Matos Bayma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Viana / Real Codó44%
×Draw36%
ITZ Sport20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viana / Real Codó
0.94
ITZ Sport
0.54

Viana / Real Codó creates 74% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Viana / Real Codó
1.00
ITZ Sport
0.88

allows per match

Viana / Real Codó
0.20
ITZ Sport
0.88

finishing

Viana / Real Codó+0.00on par
ITZ Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 81Over: 1981%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 75Yes: 2575%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viana / Real Codó ↓

ITZ Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–112%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Viana / Real Codó or draw
80%
Viana / Real Codó or ITZ Sport
64%
Draw or ITZ Sport
56%

Winning margin

Viana / Real Codó wins by 2+
16%
ITZ Sport wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Viana / Real Codó 1+ goals
61%
Viana / Real Codó 2+ goals
24%
Viana / Real Codó 3+ goals
7%
ITZ Sport 1+ goals
42%
ITZ Sport 2+ goals
10%
ITZ Sport 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Viana / Real Codó (draw refunded)
68%
ITZ Sport (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viana / Real Codó at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

ITZ Sport away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viana / Real Codó attack 1.00 + ITZ Sport defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

ITZ Sport attack 0.88 + Viana / Real Codó defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Viana / Real Codó scores more
44%
level
36%
ITZ Sport scores more
20%

Viana / Real Codó at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Viana / Real Codó will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viana / Real Codó vs ITZ Sport

Viana / Real Codó and ITZ Sport drew 0-0 in Maranhense - 2 on November 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Renné de Matos Bayma in Codó, Maranhão.