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ITZ Sport vs Viana / Real Codó — Maranhense - 2 2026

ITZ Sport
ITZ Sport
FT
0 – 5
Viana / Real Codó
Viana / Real Codó
10/18/2024Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Walter Lira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

ITZ Sport16%
×Draw21%
Viana / Real Codó63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ITZ Sport
0.85
Viana / Real Codó
1.95

Viana / Real Codó creates 129% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

ITZ Sport
1.50
Viana / Real Codó
2.40

allows per match

ITZ Sport
1.50
Viana / Real Codó
0.20

finishing

ITZ Sport+0.00on par
Viana / Real Codó+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ITZ Sport ↓

Viana / Real Codó →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

ITZ Sport or draw
37%
ITZ Sport or Viana / Real Codó
79%
Draw or Viana / Real Codó
84%

Winning margin

ITZ Sport wins by 2+
5%
Viana / Real Codó wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

ITZ Sport 1+ goals
57%
ITZ Sport 2+ goals
21%
ITZ Sport 3+ goals
5%
Viana / Real Codó 1+ goals
86%
Viana / Real Codó 2+ goals
58%
Viana / Real Codó 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

ITZ Sport (draw refunded)
20%
Viana / Real Codó (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ITZ Sport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Viana / Real Codó away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ITZ Sport attack 1.50 + Viana / Real Codó defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.85

Viana / Real Codó attack 2.40 + ITZ Sport defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

ITZ Sport scores more
16%
level
21%
Viana / Real Codó scores more
63%

Viana / Real Codó at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Viana / Real Codó will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maranhense - 2: ITZ Sport 0–5 Viana / Real Codó

Viana / Real Codó beat ITZ Sport 5-0 in Maranhense - 2 on October 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Walter Lira in Imperatriz, Maranhão.