VfR Mannheim 4–0 Mutschelbach: Result & Stats

VfR Mannheim

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Mutschelbach

N. Djengoue 84'

A. Sahiti 72'

H. Amin 41'

A. Arthee 31'

8/26/2023

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 4Rhein-Neckar-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

VfR Mannheim56%

×Draw21%

Mutschelbach24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfR MannheimExpected goals in this matchMutschelbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.36

VfR Mannheim

2.17

Mutschelbach

1.36

VfR Mannheim creates 60% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

1.96

creates per match

1.68

1.04

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

VfR Mannheim

1.96

Mutschelbach

1.68

allows per match

VfR Mannheim

1.04

Mutschelbach

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfR Mannheim+0.00on par

Mutschelbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfR Mannheim ↓

Mutschelbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

VfR Mannheim or draw

76%

VfR Mannheim or Mutschelbach

79%

Draw or Mutschelbach

44%

Winning margin

VfR Mannheim wins by 2+

34%

Mutschelbach wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

VfR Mannheim 1+ goals

89%

VfR Mannheim 2+ goals

64%

VfR Mannheim 3+ goals

36%

Mutschelbach 1+ goals

74%

Mutschelbach 2+ goals

39%

Mutschelbach 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

VfR Mannheim (draw refunded)

70%

Mutschelbach (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfR Mannheim at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Mutschelbach away — creates 1.68, concedes 2.38 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfR Mannheim attack 1.96 + Mutschelbach defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.17

Mutschelbach attack 1.68 + VfR Mannheim defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

VfR Mannheim scores more

56%

level

21%

Mutschelbach scores more

24%

VfR Mannheim at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "VfR Mannheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

A. Arthee

41'

H. Amin

72'

A. Sahiti

84'

N. Djengoue

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff