Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mutschelbach vs VfR Mannheim — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Mutschelbach
Mutschelbach
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
VfR Mannheim
VfR Mannheim
3/2/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 21ATSV Mutschelbach Piston`s EDEKA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mutschelbach41%
×Draw21%
VfR Mannheim38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mutschelbach
2.02
VfR Mannheim
1.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Mutschelbach
2.44
VfR Mannheim
1.92

allows per match

Mutschelbach
1.94
VfR Mannheim
1.59

finishing

Mutschelbach+0.00on par
VfR Mannheim+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutschelbach ↓

VfR Mannheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Mutschelbach or draw
62%
Mutschelbach or VfR Mannheim
79%
Draw or VfR Mannheim
59%

Winning margin

Mutschelbach wins by 2+
23%
VfR Mannheim wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Mutschelbach 1+ goals
87%
Mutschelbach 2+ goals
60%
Mutschelbach 3+ goals
33%
VfR Mannheim 1+ goals
85%
VfR Mannheim 2+ goals
57%
VfR Mannheim 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Mutschelbach (draw refunded)
52%
VfR Mannheim (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutschelbach at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

VfR Mannheim away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutschelbach attack 2.44 + VfR Mannheim defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.02

VfR Mannheim attack 1.92 + Mutschelbach defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mutschelbach scores more
41%
level
21%
VfR Mannheim scores more
38%

Mutschelbach at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mutschelbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Mutschelbach 2–0 VfR Mannheim

Mutschelbach beat VfR Mannheim 2-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at ATSV Mutschelbach Piston`s EDEKA-Arena in Karlsbad.