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VfR Mannheim vs Hollenbach — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

VfR Mannheim
VfR Mannheim
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Hollenbach
Hollenbach
3/9/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 22Rhein-Neckar-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

VfR Mannheim57%
×Draw22%
Hollenbach21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfR Mannheim
2.01
Hollenbach
1.15

VfR Mannheim creates 75% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

VfR Mannheim
1.96
Hollenbach
1.26

allows per match

VfR Mannheim
1.04
Hollenbach
2.07

finishing

VfR Mannheim+0.00on par
Hollenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfR Mannheim ↓

Hollenbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

VfR Mannheim or draw
79%
VfR Mannheim or Hollenbach
78%
Draw or Hollenbach
43%

Winning margin

VfR Mannheim wins by 2+
34%
Hollenbach wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

VfR Mannheim 1+ goals
87%
VfR Mannheim 2+ goals
59%
VfR Mannheim 3+ goals
32%
Hollenbach 1+ goals
68%
Hollenbach 2+ goals
32%
Hollenbach 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

VfR Mannheim (draw refunded)
73%
Hollenbach (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfR Mannheim at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Hollenbach away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.07 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfR Mannheim attack 1.96 + Hollenbach defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.01

Hollenbach attack 1.26 + VfR Mannheim defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

VfR Mannheim scores more
57%
level
22%
Hollenbach scores more
21%

VfR Mannheim at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "VfR Mannheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VfR Mannheim vs Hollenbach

Hollenbach beat VfR Mannheim 3-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Rhein-Neckar-Stadion in Mannheim.