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Hollenbach vs VfR Mannheim — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Hollenbach
Hollenbach
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
VfR Mannheim
VfR Mannheim
3/29/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 25Jako-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hollenbach40%
×Draw23%
VfR Mannheim37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hollenbach
1.75
VfR Mannheim
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

Hollenbach
1.90
VfR Mannheim
1.92

allows per match

Hollenbach
1.47
VfR Mannheim
1.59

finishing

Hollenbach+0.00on par
VfR Mannheim+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hollenbach ↓

VfR Mannheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hollenbach or draw
63%
Hollenbach or VfR Mannheim
77%
Draw or VfR Mannheim
60%

Winning margin

Hollenbach wins by 2+
21%
VfR Mannheim wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hollenbach 1+ goals
83%
Hollenbach 2+ goals
52%
Hollenbach 3+ goals
25%
VfR Mannheim 1+ goals
82%
VfR Mannheim 2+ goals
50%
VfR Mannheim 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Hollenbach (draw refunded)
52%
VfR Mannheim (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hollenbach at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

VfR Mannheim away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hollenbach attack 1.90 + VfR Mannheim defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.75

VfR Mannheim attack 1.92 + Hollenbach defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hollenbach scores more
40%
level
23%
VfR Mannheim scores more
37%

Hollenbach at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hollenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Hollenbach 0–1 VfR Mannheim

VfR Mannheim beat Hollenbach 1-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Jako-Arena in Mulfingen.