VfR Mannheim 2–1 Göppinger SV: Result & Stats

VfR Mannheim

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Göppinger SV

9/6/2025

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 7Rhein-Neckar-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

VfR Mannheim48%

×Draw24%

Göppinger SV29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfR MannheimExpected goals in this matchGöppinger SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.27

VfR Mannheim

1.71

Göppinger SV

1.27

VfR Mannheim creates 35% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 76 away

1.96

creates per match

1.49

1.04

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

VfR Mannheim

1.96

Göppinger SV

1.49

allows per match

VfR Mannheim

1.04

Göppinger SV

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfR Mannheim+0.00on par

Göppinger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfR Mannheim ↓

Göppinger SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

VfR Mannheim or draw

71%

VfR Mannheim or Göppinger SV

76%

Draw or Göppinger SV

52%

Winning margin

VfR Mannheim wins by 2+

25%

Göppinger SV wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

VfR Mannheim 1+ goals

82%

VfR Mannheim 2+ goals

51%

VfR Mannheim 3+ goals

24%

Göppinger SV 1+ goals

72%

Göppinger SV 2+ goals

36%

Göppinger SV 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

VfR Mannheim (draw refunded)

63%

Göppinger SV (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfR Mannheim at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Göppinger SV away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfR Mannheim attack 1.96 + Göppinger SV defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.71

Göppinger SV attack 1.49 + VfR Mannheim defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

VfR Mannheim scores more

48%

level

24%

Göppinger SV scores more

29%

VfR Mannheim at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "VfR Mannheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff