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Göppinger SV vs VfR Mannheim — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Göppinger SV
Göppinger SV
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
VfR Mannheim
VfR Mannheim
3/21/2026Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 24Stadion SV Göppingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Göppinger SV43%
×Draw23%
VfR Mannheim34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göppinger SV
1.82
VfR Mannheim
1.59

Göppinger SV creates 14% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 51 away

creates per match

Göppinger SV
2.05
VfR Mannheim
1.92

allows per match

Göppinger SV
1.27
VfR Mannheim
1.59

finishing

Göppinger SV+0.00on par
VfR Mannheim+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göppinger SV ↓

VfR Mannheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Göppinger SV or draw
66%
Göppinger SV or VfR Mannheim
77%
Draw or VfR Mannheim
57%

Winning margin

Göppinger SV wins by 2+
23%
VfR Mannheim wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Göppinger SV 1+ goals
84%
Göppinger SV 2+ goals
54%
Göppinger SV 3+ goals
27%
VfR Mannheim 1+ goals
80%
VfR Mannheim 2+ goals
47%
VfR Mannheim 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Göppinger SV (draw refunded)
56%
VfR Mannheim (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göppinger SV at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

VfR Mannheim away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göppinger SV attack 2.05 + VfR Mannheim defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.82

VfR Mannheim attack 1.92 + Göppinger SV defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Göppinger SV scores more
43%
level
23%
VfR Mannheim scores more
34%

Göppinger SV at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Göppinger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Göppinger SV vs VfR Mannheim

VfR Mannheim beat Göppinger SV 3-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion SV Göppingen in Göppingen.