Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

VfR Mannheim vs Fellbach — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

VfR Mannheim
VfR Mannheim
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Fellbach
Fellbach
A. Ulusoy 74'
A. Wooten 65'
K. Kruger 27'
I. T. Okwubor 24'
A. Esswein 19'
B. Dautaj 79'
L. Campanile 73'
9/4/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 6Rhein-Neckar-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

VfR Mannheim64%
×Draw19%
Fellbach17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfR Mannheim
2.36
Fellbach
1.14

VfR Mannheim creates 107% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

VfR Mannheim
1.96
Fellbach
1.24

allows per match

VfR Mannheim
1.04
Fellbach
2.76

finishing

VfR Mannheim+0.00on par
Fellbach+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfR Mannheim ↓

Fellbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

VfR Mannheim or draw
83%
VfR Mannheim or Fellbach
81%
Draw or Fellbach
36%

Winning margin

VfR Mannheim wins by 2+
42%
Fellbach wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

VfR Mannheim 1+ goals
90%
VfR Mannheim 2+ goals
68%
VfR Mannheim 3+ goals
41%
Fellbach 1+ goals
68%
Fellbach 2+ goals
32%
Fellbach 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

VfR Mannheim (draw refunded)
79%
Fellbach (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfR Mannheim at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Fellbach away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfR Mannheim attack 1.96 + Fellbach defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.36

Fellbach attack 1.24 + VfR Mannheim defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

VfR Mannheim scores more
64%
level
19%
Fellbach scores more
17%

VfR Mannheim at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "VfR Mannheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
A. Esswein
24'
I. T. Okwubor
27'
K. Kruger
65'
A. Wooten
73'
L. Campanile
74'
A. Ulusoy
79'
B. Dautaj

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: VfR Mannheim 5–2 Fellbach

VfR Mannheim beat Fellbach 5-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 4, 2024.

Goals: A. Esswein (19'), I. T. Okwubor (24'), K. Kruger (27'), A. Wooten (65'), L. Campanile (73'), A. Ulusoy (74'), B. Dautaj (79').

The match was played at Rhein-Neckar-Stadion in Mannheim.