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Fellbach vs VfR Mannheim — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Fellbach
Fellbach
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
VfR Mannheim
VfR Mannheim
L. Leuze 55'
P. Fossi 45+2'
3/14/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 23Kunstrasenplatz 1 Fellbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fellbach22%
×Draw21%
VfR Mannheim57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fellbach
1.21
VfR Mannheim
2.05

VfR Mannheim creates 69% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Fellbach
0.82
VfR Mannheim
1.92

allows per match

Fellbach
2.18
VfR Mannheim
1.59

finishing

Fellbach+0.00on par
VfR Mannheim+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fellbach ↓

VfR Mannheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Fellbach or draw
43%
Fellbach or VfR Mannheim
79%
Draw or VfR Mannheim
78%

Winning margin

Fellbach wins by 2+
9%
VfR Mannheim wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Fellbach 1+ goals
70%
Fellbach 2+ goals
34%
Fellbach 3+ goals
12%
VfR Mannheim 1+ goals
87%
VfR Mannheim 2+ goals
61%
VfR Mannheim 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Fellbach (draw refunded)
28%
VfR Mannheim (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fellbach at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

VfR Mannheim away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fellbach attack 0.82 + VfR Mannheim defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.21

VfR Mannheim attack 1.92 + Fellbach defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Fellbach scores more
22%
level
21%
VfR Mannheim scores more
57%

VfR Mannheim at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "VfR Mannheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'
P. Fossi
55'
L. Leuze

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fellbach vs VfR Mannheim

Fellbach beat VfR Mannheim 2-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on March 14, 2025.

Goals: P. Fossi (45+2'), L. Leuze (55').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz 1 Fellbach in Fellbach.