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VfR Mannheim vs Backnang — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

VfR Mannheim
VfR Mannheim
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Backnang
Backnang
8/3/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 1Rhein-Neckar-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

VfR Mannheim51%
×Draw23%
Backnang27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfR Mannheim
1.89
Backnang
1.31

VfR Mannheim creates 44% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 93 away

creates per match

VfR Mannheim
1.96
Backnang
1.57

allows per match

VfR Mannheim
1.04
Backnang
1.82

finishing

VfR Mannheim+0.00on par
Backnang+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfR Mannheim ↓

Backnang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

VfR Mannheim or draw
73%
VfR Mannheim or Backnang
77%
Draw or Backnang
49%

Winning margin

VfR Mannheim wins by 2+
29%
Backnang wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

VfR Mannheim 1+ goals
85%
VfR Mannheim 2+ goals
56%
VfR Mannheim 3+ goals
29%
Backnang 1+ goals
73%
Backnang 2+ goals
38%
Backnang 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

VfR Mannheim (draw refunded)
66%
Backnang (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfR Mannheim at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Backnang away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.82 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfR Mannheim attack 1.96 + Backnang defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.89

Backnang attack 1.57 + VfR Mannheim defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

VfR Mannheim scores more
51%
level
23%
Backnang scores more
27%

VfR Mannheim at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "VfR Mannheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: VfR Mannheim 0–0 Backnang

VfR Mannheim and Backnang drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Rhein-Neckar-Stadion in Mannheim.