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Backnang vs VfR Mannheim — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Backnang
Backnang
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
VfR Mannheim
VfR Mannheim
11/22/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 18Etzwiesenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Backnang37%
×Draw22%
VfR Mannheim41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Backnang
1.72
VfR Mannheim
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 51 away

creates per match

Backnang
1.85
VfR Mannheim
1.92

allows per match

Backnang
1.71
VfR Mannheim
1.59

finishing

Backnang+0.00on par
VfR Mannheim+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backnang ↓

VfR Mannheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Backnang or draw
59%
Backnang or VfR Mannheim
78%
Draw or VfR Mannheim
63%

Winning margin

Backnang wins by 2+
19%
VfR Mannheim wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Backnang 1+ goals
82%
Backnang 2+ goals
51%
Backnang 3+ goals
25%
VfR Mannheim 1+ goals
84%
VfR Mannheim 2+ goals
54%
VfR Mannheim 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Backnang (draw refunded)
48%
VfR Mannheim (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backnang at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.71 · 93 matches

VfR Mannheim away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backnang attack 1.85 + VfR Mannheim defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.72

VfR Mannheim attack 1.92 + Backnang defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Backnang scores more
37%
level
22%
VfR Mannheim scores more
41%

VfR Mannheim at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "VfR Mannheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Backnang 2–4 VfR Mannheim

VfR Mannheim beat Backnang 4-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on November 22, 2025.

The match was played at Etzwiesenstadion in Backnang.