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VfR Aalen vs SGV Freiberg — Friendlies Clubs 2026

VfR Aalen
VfR Aalen
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
SGV Freiberg
SGV Freiberg
S. Kienle 74'
L. Peto 85' (pen)
M. Zie 67'
T. Bradara 54'
1/24/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

VfR Aalen42%
×Draw20%
SGV Freiberg37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfR Aalen
2.14
SGV Freiberg
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

VfR Aalen
2.14
SGV Freiberg
2.86

allows per match

VfR Aalen
1.14
SGV Freiberg
2.14

finishing

VfR Aalen+0.00on par
SGV Freiberg+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfR Aalen ↓

SGV Freiberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

VfR Aalen or draw
63%
VfR Aalen or SGV Freiberg
80%
Draw or SGV Freiberg
58%

Winning margin

VfR Aalen wins by 2+
24%
SGV Freiberg wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

VfR Aalen 1+ goals
88%
VfR Aalen 2+ goals
63%
VfR Aalen 3+ goals
36%
SGV Freiberg 1+ goals
86%
SGV Freiberg 2+ goals
59%
SGV Freiberg 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

VfR Aalen (draw refunded)
53%
SGV Freiberg (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfR Aalen at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

SGV Freiberg away — creates 2.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfR Aalen attack 2.14 + SGV Freiberg defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.14

SGV Freiberg attack 2.86 + VfR Aalen defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

VfR Aalen scores more
42%
level
20%
SGV Freiberg scores more
37%

VfR Aalen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "VfR Aalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
T. Bradara
67'
M. Zie
74'
S. Kienle
85'
L. PetoPenalty
VfR
SGV
P. Kosturkov
Manager: P. Kosturkov
Kushtrim Lushtaku
Manager: Kushtrim Lushtaku

Friendlies Clubs: VfR Aalen 1–3 SGV Freiberg

SGV Freiberg beat VfR Aalen 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 24, 2026.

Goals: T. Bradara (54'), M. Zie (67'), S. Kienle (74'), L. Peto (85' pen).