VfR Aalen vs SGV Freiberg — League #86 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 8+ matches
VfR Aalen46%
SGV Freiberg30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
VfR Aalen creates 27% more chances
Season form · 8 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over61
- Under39
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes62
- No38
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
VfR Aalen ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
VfR Aalen at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches
SGV Freiberg away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
VfR Aalen attack 1.25 + SGV Freiberg defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.77
SGV Freiberg attack 1.40 + VfR Aalen defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.39
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
VfR Aalen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "VfR Aalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
FC 08 Homburg
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Eintracht Trier
Stuttgarter Kickers
FSV Frankfurt
Hessen Kassel
TSV Steinbach
SV Sandhausen
Freiburg II
FC Astoria Walldorf
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.SGV Freiberg
Balingen
Bayern Alzenau
Kickers Offenbach
Bahlinger SC
Schott Mainz
FSV Mainz 05 IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
VfR Aalen host SGV Freiberg on Saturday, 11 November 2023 at 13:00. The match is part of the League #86 2026/2027 season.
League #86: VfR Aalen 2–1 SGV Freiberg
VfR Aalen beat SGV Freiberg 2-1 in League #86 on November 11, 2023.
Goals: J. Gerezgiher (19'), I. Diakité (64'), B. Kindsvater (76').
The match was played at CENTUS ARENA in Aalen.