VfL Wolfsburg W 5–0 Fiorentina W: Result & Stats

VfL Wolfsburg W

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Fiorentina W

9/25/2024

UEFA Champions League Women · 2nd RoundAOK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

VfL Wolfsburg W68%

×Draw19%

Fiorentina W13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL Wolfsburg WExpected goals in this matchFiorentina W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.77

VfL Wolfsburg W

2.11

Fiorentina W

0.77

VfL Wolfsburg W creates 174% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 6 away

2.55

creates per match

0.50

1.03

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

VfL Wolfsburg W

2.55

Fiorentina W

0.50

allows per match

VfL Wolfsburg W

1.03

Fiorentina W

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfL Wolfsburg W+0.00on par

Fiorentina W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Wolfsburg W ↓

Fiorentina W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

VfL Wolfsburg W or draw

87%

VfL Wolfsburg W or Fiorentina W

81%

Draw or Fiorentina W

32%

Winning margin

VfL Wolfsburg W wins by 2+

44%

Fiorentina W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

VfL Wolfsburg W 1+ goals

88%

VfL Wolfsburg W 2+ goals

62%

VfL Wolfsburg W 3+ goals

35%

Fiorentina W 1+ goals

54%

Fiorentina W 2+ goals

18%

Fiorentina W 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

VfL Wolfsburg W (draw refunded)

84%

Fiorentina W (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Wolfsburg W at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Fiorentina W away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Wolfsburg W attack 2.55 + Fiorentina W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.11

Fiorentina W attack 0.50 + VfL Wolfsburg W defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

VfL Wolfsburg W scores more

68%

level

19%

Fiorentina W scores more

13%

VfL Wolfsburg W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "VfL Wolfsburg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VfL Wolfsburg W vs Fiorentina W

VfL Wolfsburg W beat Fiorentina W 5-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 25, 2024.

The match was played at AOK Stadion in Wolfsburg.

VfL Wolfsburg W vs Fiorentina W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: VfL Wolfsburg W vs Fiorentina W