Fiorentina W 0–7 VfL Wolfsburg W: Result & Stats

Fiorentina W

FT

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 4

VfL Wolfsburg W

9/18/2024

UEFA Champions League Women · 2nd RoundStadio Curva Fiesole - Viola Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fiorentina W6%

×Draw10%

VfL Wolfsburg W84%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fiorentina WExpected goals in this matchVfL Wolfsburg W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

3.66

Fiorentina W

0.96

VfL Wolfsburg W

3.66

VfL Wolfsburg W creates 281% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 26 away

0.50

creates per match

2.81

4.50

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Fiorentina W

0.50

VfL Wolfsburg W

2.81

allows per match

Fiorentina W

4.50

VfL Wolfsburg W

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fiorentina W+0.00on par

VfL Wolfsburg W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina W ↓

VfL Wolfsburg W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–27%

0–39%

0–48%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–48%

2

2–00%

2–12%

2–23%

2–34%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Fiorentina W or draw

16%

Fiorentina W or VfL Wolfsburg W

90%

Draw or VfL Wolfsburg W

94%

Winning margin

Fiorentina W wins by 2+

2%

VfL Wolfsburg W wins by 2+

68%

Team goals

Fiorentina W 1+ goals

62%

Fiorentina W 2+ goals

25%

Fiorentina W 3+ goals

7%

VfL Wolfsburg W 1+ goals

97%

VfL Wolfsburg W 2+ goals

87%

VfL Wolfsburg W 3+ goals

68%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina W (draw refunded)

7%

VfL Wolfsburg W (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina W at home — creates 0.50, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

VfL Wolfsburg W away — creates 2.81, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina W attack 0.50 + VfL Wolfsburg W defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 0.96

VfL Wolfsburg W attack 2.81 + Fiorentina W defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Fiorentina W scores more

6%

level

10%

VfL Wolfsburg W scores more

84%

VfL Wolfsburg W at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "VfL Wolfsburg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff