VfL Wolfsburg 1–0 Vfl Bochum: Result & Stats

VfL Wolfsburg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vfl Bochum

J. Wind 43'

4/20/2024

Bundesliga · Round 30Volkswagen Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

VfL Wolfsburg46%

×Draw24%

Vfl Bochum30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL WolfsburgExpected goals in this matchVfl Bochum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.31

VfL Wolfsburg

1.69

Vfl Bochum

1.31

VfL Wolfsburg creates 29% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 10 away

1.72

creates per match

1.12

1.49

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

VfL Wolfsburg

1.72

Vfl Bochum

1.12

allows per match

VfL Wolfsburg

1.49

Vfl Bochum

1.67

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

VfL Wolfsburg-0.52scores less

Vfl Bochum-0.52scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Wolfsburg ↓

Vfl Bochum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

VfL Wolfsburg or draw

70%

VfL Wolfsburg or Vfl Bochum

76%

Draw or Vfl Bochum

54%

Winning margin

VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+

24%

Vfl Bochum wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals

82%

VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals

50%

VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals

24%

Vfl Bochum 1+ goals

73%

Vfl Bochum 2+ goals

38%

Vfl Bochum 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)

61%

Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Wolfsburg at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.49 · 25 matches

Vfl Bochum away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.67 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.72 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Vfl Bochum attack 1.12 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

VfL Wolfsburg scores more

46%

level

24%

Vfl Bochum scores more

30%

VfL Wolfsburg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "VfL Wolfsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Riemann

Vfl Bochum · G

8.0

Match Events

12'

Patrick Osterhage

37'

Sebastiaan Bornauw

40'

Patrick OsterhageGoal cancelled

43'

J. Wind

46'

C. Antwi-Adjei← T. Asano

53'

Tiago Tomás

65'

K. Paredes← Tiago Tomás

65'

A. Sarr← R. Baku

65'

K. Behrens← J. Wind

68'

Kevin Paredes

68'

M. Wittek← M. Bero

68'

L. Daschner← A. Losilla

75'

J. Kamiński← K. Fischer

81'

M. Broschinski← F. Passlack

85'

Aster Vranckx

86'

Christopher Antwi-Adjei

87'

P. Förster← P. Osterhage

90+5'

Kevin Stöger

90+6'

Kevin StögerCard reviewed

90+2'

M. Svanberg← M. Arnold

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VfLVfl

Overview

46%Possession54%

9Total Shots13

0.85Expected Goals (xG)1.30

5Corners8

11Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots13

5On Target1

1Off Target5

3Blocked7

6Inside Box7

3Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

354Total Passes402

239Accurate Passes290

68%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls16

4Yellow Cards3

3Offsides6

Match Recap: VfL Wolfsburg vs Vfl Bochum

VfL Wolfsburg beat Vfl Bochum 1-0 in Bundesliga on April 20, 2024.

Goals: J. Wind (43').

Vfl Bochum controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Volkswagen Arena in Wolfsburg.

VfL Wolfsburg vs Vfl Bochum — Bundesliga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: VfL Wolfsburg vs Vfl Bochum