VfL Bochum 1–3 VfL Wolfsburg: Result & Stats

VfL Bochum

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

VfL Wolfsburg

M. Boadu 72'

J. Wind 88', 37'

Tiago Tomás 21'

10/5/2024

Bundesliga · Round 6Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

VfL Bochum45%

×Draw23%

VfL Wolfsburg31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL BochumExpected goals in this matchVfL Wolfsburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.44

VfL Bochum

1.77

VfL Wolfsburg

1.44

VfL Bochum creates 23% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 27 away

1.51

creates per match

1.40

1.49

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

VfL Bochum

1.51

VfL Wolfsburg

1.40

allows per match

VfL Bochum

1.49

VfL Wolfsburg

2.03

+0.07on par

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

VfL Bochum+0.07on par

VfL Wolfsburg+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Bochum ↓

VfL Wolfsburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

VfL Bochum or draw

69%

VfL Bochum or VfL Wolfsburg

77%

Draw or VfL Wolfsburg

55%

Winning margin

VfL Bochum wins by 2+

24%

VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

VfL Bochum 1+ goals

83%

VfL Bochum 2+ goals

53%

VfL Bochum 3+ goals

26%

VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals

76%

VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals

42%

VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

VfL Bochum (draw refunded)

59%

VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Bochum at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.49 · 12 matches

VfL Wolfsburg away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.03 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Bochum attack 1.51 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.77

VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.40 + VfL Bochum defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

VfL Bochum scores more

45%

level

23%

VfL Wolfsburg scores more

31%

VfL Bochum at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "VfL Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Wind

VfL Wolfsburg · F

8.3

Match Events

19'

Myron BoaduPenalty cancelled

21'

Tiago Tomás↳ M. Amoura

37'

J. Wind↳ M. Amoura

38'

Jakov Medić

38'

Jonas Wind

56'

Mohamed El Amine Amoura

60'

M. Broschinski← A. Losilla

60'

L. Daschner← D. de Wit

72'

M. Boadu↳ M. Broschinski

73'

K. Fischer← R. Baku

73'

P. Wimmer← Tiago Tomás

79'

S. Özcan← A. Vranckx

79'

Y. Gerhardt← J. Kamiński

86'

Mohamed El Amine AmouraPenalty confirmed

87'

A. Baldé← I. Ordets

88'

Jonas WindMissed penalty

88'

K. Miyoshi← M. Boadu

88'

J. Wind

90+4'

J. Mæhle← M. Amoura

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VfLVfL

Overview

58%Possession42%

18Total Shots17

1.75Expected Goals (xG)2.47

7Corners6

11Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots17

5On Target5

5Off Target5

8Blocked7

11Inside Box11

7Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

406Total Passes307

310Accurate Passes203

76%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

0.87Goals Prevented0.87

Discipline

11Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

5Offsides1