VfL Wolfsburg 3–0 FSV Mainz 05: Result & Stats

VfL Wolfsburg

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

FSV Mainz 05

J. Wind 28', 5'

S. Bornauw 13'

4/30/2023

Bundesliga · Round 30VOLKSWAGEN ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

VfL Wolfsburg45%

×Draw23%

FSV Mainz 0532%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL WolfsburgExpected goals in this matchFSV Mainz 05

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.47

VfL Wolfsburg

1.77

FSV Mainz 05

1.47

VfL Wolfsburg creates 20% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 27 away

1.77

creates per match

1.43

1.51

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

VfL Wolfsburg

1.77

FSV Mainz 05

1.43

allows per match

VfL Wolfsburg

1.51

FSV Mainz 05

1.76

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

VfL Wolfsburg-0.47scores less

FSV Mainz 05-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Wolfsburg ↓

FSV Mainz 05 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

VfL Wolfsburg or draw

68%

VfL Wolfsburg or FSV Mainz 05

77%

Draw or FSV Mainz 05

55%

Winning margin

VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+

24%

FSV Mainz 05 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals

83%

VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals

53%

VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals

26%

FSV Mainz 05 1+ goals

77%

FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals

43%

FSV Mainz 05 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)

58%

FSV Mainz 05 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Wolfsburg at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.51 · 23 matches

FSV Mainz 05 away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.76 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.77 + FSV Mainz 05 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.77

FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.43 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

VfL Wolfsburg scores more

45%

level

23%

FSV Mainz 05 scores more

32%

VfL Wolfsburg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "VfL Wolfsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Wind

VfL Wolfsburg · F

8.3

Match Events

5'

J. Wind↳ M. Svanberg

13'

S. Bornauw↳ P. Wimmer

28'

J. Wind↳ R. Baku

45+2'

Stefan Bell

46'

N. Cozza← M. Lacroix

46'

Aarón Martín← E. Fernandes

46'

A. Stach← L. Barreiro

54'

Dominik Kohr

61'

A. Barkok← Lee Jae-Sung

61'

M. Ingvartsen← L. Ajorque

65'

D. da Costa← S. Widmer

66'

Aarón Martín

83'

Y. Gerhardt← M. Svanberg

83'

L. Waldschmidt← J. Wind

86'

Sebastiaan Bornauw

90+3'

K. Fischer← J. Kamiński

90'

Omar Marmoush← P. Wimmer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VfLFSV

Overview

51%Possession49%

10Total Shots10

1.93Expected Goals (xG)1.71

3Corners5

6Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots10

4On Target2

5Off Target6

1Blocked2

9Inside Box7

1Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

491Total Passes464

385Accurate Passes360

78%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides4

Bundesliga: VfL Wolfsburg 3–0 FSV Mainz 05

VfL Wolfsburg beat FSV Mainz 05 3-0 in Bundesliga on April 30, 2023.

Goals: J. Wind (5', 28'), S. Bornauw (13').

VfL Wolfsburg controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA in Wolfsburg.

VfL Wolfsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 — Bundesliga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bundesliga: VfL Wolfsburg 3–0 FSV Mainz 05