FSV Mainz 05 0–3 VfL Wolfsburg: Result & Stats

FSV Mainz 05

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

VfL Wolfsburg

R. Baku 84'

M. Arnold 70'

P. Wimmer 33'

11/5/2022

Bundesliga · Round 13MEWA ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

FSV Mainz 0547%

×Draw23%

VfL Wolfsburg30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FSV Mainz 05Expected goals in this matchVfL Wolfsburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.39

FSV Mainz 05

1.80

VfL Wolfsburg

1.39

FSV Mainz 05 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 26 away

1.66

creates per match

1.41

1.37

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

FSV Mainz 05

1.66

VfL Wolfsburg

1.41

allows per match

FSV Mainz 05

1.37

VfL Wolfsburg

1.94

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

FSV Mainz 05-0.25scores less

VfL Wolfsburg+0.24scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Mainz 05 ↓

VfL Wolfsburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FSV Mainz 05 or draw

70%

FSV Mainz 05 or VfL Wolfsburg

77%

Draw or VfL Wolfsburg

53%

Winning margin

FSV Mainz 05 wins by 2+

26%

VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FSV Mainz 05 1+ goals

83%

FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals

54%

FSV Mainz 05 3+ goals

27%

VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals

75%

VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals

40%

VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FSV Mainz 05 (draw refunded)

61%

VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Mainz 05 at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.37 · 29 matches

VfL Wolfsburg away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.94 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.66 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.80

VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.41 + FSV Mainz 05 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FSV Mainz 05 scores more

47%

level

23%

VfL Wolfsburg scores more

30%

FSV Mainz 05 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FSV Mainz 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

M. Arnold

VfL Wolfsburg · M

8.2

Match Events

33'

P. Wimmer↳ F. Nmecha

53'

Ridle Baku

65'

J. Wind← L. Nmecha

65'

M. Svanberg← F. Nmecha

70'

M. Arnold

71'

D. da Costa← S. Widmer

71'

J. Burkardt← M. Ingvartsen

75'

Anton Stach

76'

K. Fischer← P. Wimmer

78'

A. Fulgini← A. Caci

78'

D. Burgzorg← A. Stach

84'

A. Barkok← Lee Jae-Sung

84'

R. Baku↳ J. Kamiński

88'

Omar Marmoush← J. Kamiński

88'

J. Roussillon← Paulo Otávio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FSVVfL

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots10

9Corners4

15Fouls6

Shots

15Total Shots10

3On Target3

8Off Target6

4Blocked1

8Inside Box6

7Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

451Total Passes357

345Accurate Passes252

76%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0