VfL Wolfsburg 0–2 Bayer Leverkusen: Result & Stats

VfL Wolfsburg

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Bayer Leverkusen

Paulinho 90+2', 86'

3/20/2022

Bundesliga · Round 27VOLKSWAGEN ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

VfL Wolfsburg40%

×Draw24%

Bayer Leverkusen36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL WolfsburgExpected goals in this matchBayer Leverkusen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.50

VfL Wolfsburg

1.59

Bayer Leverkusen

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 33 away

1.74

creates per match

1.52

1.49

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

VfL Wolfsburg

1.74

Bayer Leverkusen

1.52

allows per match

VfL Wolfsburg

1.49

Bayer Leverkusen

1.45

-0.49scores less than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

VfL Wolfsburg-0.49scores less

Bayer Leverkusen+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Wolfsburg ↓

Bayer Leverkusen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

VfL Wolfsburg or draw

64%

VfL Wolfsburg or Bayer Leverkusen

76%

Draw or Bayer Leverkusen

60%

Winning margin

VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+

20%

Bayer Leverkusen wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals

80%

VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals

47%

VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals

21%

Bayer Leverkusen 1+ goals

78%

Bayer Leverkusen 2+ goals

44%

Bayer Leverkusen 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)

53%

Bayer Leverkusen (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Wolfsburg at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.49 · 24 matches

Bayer Leverkusen away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.74 + Bayer Leverkusen defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.59

Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.52 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

VfL Wolfsburg scores more

40%

level

24%

Bayer Leverkusen scores more

36%

VfL Wolfsburg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "VfL Wolfsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Paulinho

Bayer Leverkusen · F

8.9

Match Events

9'

Amine Adli

65'

P. Hincapié← M. Bakker

73'

C. Aránguiz← K. Bellarabi

73'

L. Alario← S. Azmoun

74'

A. Vranckx← X. Schlager

74'

L. Waldschmidt← J. Wind

74'

R. Baku← K. Mbabu

81'

Y. Gerhardt← J. Roussillon

81'

Paulinho← A. Adli

81'

D. Sinkgraven← O. Kossounou

83'

83'

83'

83'

86'

Paulinho↳ C. Aránguiz

88'

B. Białek← J. Brooks

90+2'

Paulinho↳ K. Demirbay

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VfLBayer

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots15

7Corners7

6Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots15

3On Target5

8Off Target7

3Blocked3

9Inside Box8

5Outside Box7

Passing

50%Possession50%

417Total Passes426

326Accurate Passes316

78%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Bundesliga: VfL Wolfsburg 0–2 Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen beat VfL Wolfsburg 2-0 in Bundesliga on March 20, 2022.

Goals: Paulinho (86', 90+2').

VfL Wolfsburg controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA in Wolfsburg.

VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen — Bundesliga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bundesliga: VfL Wolfsburg 0–2 Bayer Leverkusen