Bayer Leverkusen 2–2 VfL Wolfsburg: Result & Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

VfL Wolfsburg

J. Frimpong 76'

M. Diaby 17'

M. Arnold 54' (pen)

R. Andrich 28' (OG)

10/22/2022

Bundesliga · Round 11BayArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Bayer Leverkusen58%

×Draw21%

VfL Wolfsburg22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayer LeverkusenExpected goals in this matchVfL Wolfsburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.21

Bayer Leverkusen

2.10

VfL Wolfsburg

1.21

Bayer Leverkusen creates 74% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 26 away

2.27

creates per match

1.41

1.01

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Bayer Leverkusen

2.27

VfL Wolfsburg

1.41

allows per match

Bayer Leverkusen

1.01

VfL Wolfsburg

1.94

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Bayer Leverkusen-0.06on par

VfL Wolfsburg+0.24scores more

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayer Leverkusen ↓

VfL Wolfsburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Bayer Leverkusen or draw

78%

Bayer Leverkusen or VfL Wolfsburg

79%

Draw or VfL Wolfsburg

42%

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen wins by 2+

35%

VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bayer Leverkusen 1+ goals

88%

Bayer Leverkusen 2+ goals

62%

Bayer Leverkusen 3+ goals

35%

VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals

70%

VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals

34%

VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bayer Leverkusen (draw refunded)

73%

VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayer Leverkusen at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.01 · 34 matches

VfL Wolfsburg away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.94 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayer Leverkusen attack 2.27 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.10

VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.41 + Bayer Leverkusen defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bayer Leverkusen scores more

58%

level

21%

VfL Wolfsburg scores more

22%

Bayer Leverkusen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

M. Arnold

VfL Wolfsburg · M

7.5

Match Events

8'

Moussa DiabyPenalty confirmed

17'

M. Diaby↳ A. Hložek

28'

R. AndrichOwn goal

49'

Jonathan Tah

54'

M. ArnoldPenalty

60'

Felix Nmecha

60'

N. Amiri← K. Demirbay

61'

C. Hudson-Odoi← A. Hložek

70'

D. Sinkgraven← M. Bakker

70'

T. Fosu-Mensah← O. Kossounou

72'

J. Wind← Omar Marmoush

73'

J. Guilavogui← Y. Gerhardt

73'

M. Svanberg← K. Paredes

76'

J. Roussillon← J. Kamiński

76'

J. Frimpong↳ D. Sinkgraven

80'

Robert Andrich

82'

Paulinho← A. Adli

90+1'

Timothy Fosu-Mensah

90'

M. Lacroix← S. Bornauw

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BayerVfL

Overview

57%Possession43%

13Total Shots9

3Corners3

19Fouls5

Shots

13Total Shots9

5On Target1

5Off Target6

3Blocked2

7Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

514Total Passes387

424Accurate Passes298

82%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls5

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg

Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg drew 2-2 in Bundesliga on October 22, 2022.

Goals: M. Diaby (17'), R. Andrich (28' o.g.), M. Arnold (54' pen), J. Frimpong (76').

Bayer Leverkusen controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at BayArena in Leverkusen.

Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg — Bundesliga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg