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VfL Vichttal vs Union Schafhausen — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

VfL Vichttal
VfL Vichttal
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Union Schafhausen
Union Schafhausen
3/3/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 20Sportplatz Dörenberg - EWV Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

VfL Vichttal66%
×Draw17%
Union Schafhausen17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Vichttal
2.71
Union Schafhausen
1.31

VfL Vichttal creates 107% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 29 away

creates per match

VfL Vichttal
2.81
Union Schafhausen
0.97

allows per match

VfL Vichttal
1.65
Union Schafhausen
2.62

finishing

VfL Vichttal+0.00on par
Union Schafhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Vichttal ↓

Union Schafhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

VfL Vichttal or draw
83%
VfL Vichttal or Union Schafhausen
83%
Draw or Union Schafhausen
34%

Winning margin

VfL Vichttal wins by 2+
45%
Union Schafhausen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

VfL Vichttal 1+ goals
93%
VfL Vichttal 2+ goals
75%
VfL Vichttal 3+ goals
50%
Union Schafhausen 1+ goals
73%
Union Schafhausen 2+ goals
38%
Union Schafhausen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

VfL Vichttal (draw refunded)
80%
Union Schafhausen (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Vichttal at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.65 · 81 matches

Union Schafhausen away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Vichttal attack 2.81 + Union Schafhausen defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.71

Union Schafhausen attack 0.97 + VfL Vichttal defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

VfL Vichttal scores more
66%
level
17%
Union Schafhausen scores more
17%

VfL Vichttal at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "VfL Vichttal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VfL Vichttal vs Union Schafhausen

VfL Vichttal beat Union Schafhausen 4-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Dörenberg - EWV Arena in Rhineland.