Union Schafhausen 0–2 VfL Vichttal: Result & Stats

Union Schafhausen

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

VfL Vichttal

9/10/2023

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 5Sportplatz Im Kuhlert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Union Schafhausen27%

×Draw22%

VfL Vichttal51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union SchafhausenExpected goals in this matchVfL Vichttal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.97

Union Schafhausen

1.38

VfL Vichttal

1.97

VfL Vichttal creates 43% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 79 away

0.97

creates per match

1.92

2.03

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Union Schafhausen

0.97

VfL Vichttal

1.92

allows per match

Union Schafhausen

2.03

VfL Vichttal

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Schafhausen+0.00on par

VfL Vichttal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Schafhausen ↓

VfL Vichttal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Union Schafhausen or draw

49%

Union Schafhausen or VfL Vichttal

78%

Draw or VfL Vichttal

73%

Winning margin

Union Schafhausen wins by 2+

12%

VfL Vichttal wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Union Schafhausen 1+ goals

75%

Union Schafhausen 2+ goals

40%

Union Schafhausen 3+ goals

16%

VfL Vichttal 1+ goals

86%

VfL Vichttal 2+ goals

58%

VfL Vichttal 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Union Schafhausen (draw refunded)

35%

VfL Vichttal (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Schafhausen at home — creates 0.97, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

VfL Vichttal away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.78 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Schafhausen attack 0.97 + VfL Vichttal defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.38

VfL Vichttal attack 1.92 + Union Schafhausen defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Union Schafhausen scores more

27%

level

22%

VfL Vichttal scores more

51%

VfL Vichttal at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "VfL Vichttal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff