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VfL Vichttal vs Friesdorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

VfL Vichttal
VfL Vichttal
FT
11 – 3
HT: 5 – 1
Friesdorf
Friesdorf
6/4/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 29Sportplatz Dörenberg - EWV Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

VfL Vichttal62%
×Draw18%
Friesdorf20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Vichttal
2.66
Friesdorf
1.50

VfL Vichttal creates 77% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 36 away

creates per match

VfL Vichttal
2.81
Friesdorf
1.36

allows per match

VfL Vichttal
1.65
Friesdorf
2.50

finishing

VfL Vichttal+0.00on par
Friesdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Vichttal ↓

Friesdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

VfL Vichttal or draw
80%
VfL Vichttal or Friesdorf
82%
Draw or Friesdorf
38%

Winning margin

VfL Vichttal wins by 2+
41%
Friesdorf wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

VfL Vichttal 1+ goals
93%
VfL Vichttal 2+ goals
74%
VfL Vichttal 3+ goals
49%
Friesdorf 1+ goals
78%
Friesdorf 2+ goals
44%
Friesdorf 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

VfL Vichttal (draw refunded)
75%
Friesdorf (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Vichttal at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.65 · 81 matches

Friesdorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Vichttal attack 2.81 + Friesdorf defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.66

Friesdorf attack 1.36 + VfL Vichttal defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

VfL Vichttal scores more
62%
level
18%
Friesdorf scores more
20%

VfL Vichttal at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "VfL Vichttal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: VfL Vichttal 11–3 Friesdorf

VfL Vichttal beat Friesdorf 11-3 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Dörenberg - EWV Arena in Rhineland.