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Friesdorf vs VfL Vichttal — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Friesdorf
Friesdorf
FT
1 – 2
VfL Vichttal
VfL Vichttal
8/29/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 4Sportzentrum Friesdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Friesdorf35%
×Draw21%
VfL Vichttal44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Friesdorf
1.84
VfL Vichttal
2.08

VfL Vichttal creates 13% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 79 away

creates per match

Friesdorf
1.91
VfL Vichttal
1.92

allows per match

Friesdorf
2.25
VfL Vichttal
1.78

finishing

Friesdorf+0.00on par
VfL Vichttal+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Friesdorf ↓

VfL Vichttal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Friesdorf or draw
56%
Friesdorf or VfL Vichttal
79%
Draw or VfL Vichttal
65%

Winning margin

Friesdorf wins by 2+
18%
VfL Vichttal wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Friesdorf 1+ goals
84%
Friesdorf 2+ goals
55%
Friesdorf 3+ goals
28%
VfL Vichttal 1+ goals
87%
VfL Vichttal 2+ goals
61%
VfL Vichttal 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Friesdorf (draw refunded)
44%
VfL Vichttal (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Friesdorf at home — creates 1.91, concedes 2.25 · 32 matches

VfL Vichttal away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.78 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Friesdorf attack 1.91 + VfL Vichttal defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.84

VfL Vichttal attack 1.92 + Friesdorf defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Friesdorf scores more
35%
level
21%
VfL Vichttal scores more
44%

VfL Vichttal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "VfL Vichttal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Friesdorf vs VfL Vichttal

VfL Vichttal beat Friesdorf 2-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Friesdorf in Bonn.