Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

VfL Vichttal vs Fortuna Köln II — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

VfL Vichttal
VfL Vichttal
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Fortuna Köln II
Fortuna Köln II
5/20/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 30Sportplatz Dörenberg - EWV Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

VfL Vichttal54%
×Draw20%
Fortuna Köln II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Vichttal
2.35
Fortuna Köln II
1.59

VfL Vichttal creates 48% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 79 away

creates per match

VfL Vichttal
2.81
Fortuna Köln II
1.54

allows per match

VfL Vichttal
1.65
Fortuna Köln II
1.89

finishing

VfL Vichttal+0.00on par
Fortuna Köln II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Vichttal ↓

Fortuna Köln II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

VfL Vichttal or draw
74%
VfL Vichttal or Fortuna Köln II
80%
Draw or Fortuna Köln II
46%

Winning margin

VfL Vichttal wins by 2+
34%
Fortuna Köln II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

VfL Vichttal 1+ goals
90%
VfL Vichttal 2+ goals
68%
VfL Vichttal 3+ goals
41%
Fortuna Köln II 1+ goals
80%
Fortuna Köln II 2+ goals
47%
Fortuna Köln II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

VfL Vichttal (draw refunded)
68%
Fortuna Köln II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Vichttal at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.65 · 81 matches

Fortuna Köln II away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Vichttal attack 2.81 + Fortuna Köln II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.35

Fortuna Köln II attack 1.54 + VfL Vichttal defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

VfL Vichttal scores more
54%
level
20%
Fortuna Köln II scores more
26%

VfL Vichttal at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "VfL Vichttal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VfL Vichttal vs Fortuna Köln II

VfL Vichttal beat Fortuna Köln II 4-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on May 20, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Dörenberg - EWV Arena in Rhineland.