Fortuna Köln II 2–3 VfL Vichttal: Result & Stats

Fortuna Köln II

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

VfL Vichttal

5/1/2025

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 23Kunstrasenplatz Jean-Löring-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Fortuna Köln II41%

×Draw22%

VfL Vichttal37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Köln IIExpected goals in this matchVfL Vichttal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.75

Fortuna Köln II

1.87

VfL Vichttal

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 79 away

1.96

creates per match

1.92

1.58

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Fortuna Köln II

1.96

VfL Vichttal

1.92

allows per match

Fortuna Köln II

1.58

VfL Vichttal

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Köln II+0.00on par

VfL Vichttal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln II ↓

VfL Vichttal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln II or draw

63%

Fortuna Köln II or VfL Vichttal

78%

Draw or VfL Vichttal

59%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln II wins by 2+

22%

VfL Vichttal wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln II 1+ goals

85%

Fortuna Köln II 2+ goals

56%

Fortuna Köln II 3+ goals

29%

VfL Vichttal 1+ goals

83%

VfL Vichttal 2+ goals

52%

VfL Vichttal 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln II (draw refunded)

53%

VfL Vichttal (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 78 matches

VfL Vichttal away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.78 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln II attack 1.96 + VfL Vichttal defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.87

VfL Vichttal attack 1.92 + Fortuna Köln II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fortuna Köln II scores more

41%

level

22%

VfL Vichttal scores more

37%

Fortuna Köln II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fortuna Köln II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff