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VfL Vichttal vs Deutz — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

VfL Vichttal
VfL Vichttal
CANC
13:30
Deutz
Deutz
6/3/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 32Sportplatz Dörenberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

VfL Vichttal66%
×Draw17%
Deutz17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Vichttal
2.75
Deutz
1.38

VfL Vichttal creates 99% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 19 away

creates per match

VfL Vichttal
2.81
Deutz
1.11

allows per match

VfL Vichttal
1.65
Deutz
2.68

finishing

VfL Vichttal+0.00on par
Deutz+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Vichttal ↓

Deutz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

VfL Vichttal or draw
83%
VfL Vichttal or Deutz
83%
Draw or Deutz
34%

Winning margin

VfL Vichttal wins by 2+
45%
Deutz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

VfL Vichttal 1+ goals
93%
VfL Vichttal 2+ goals
75%
VfL Vichttal 3+ goals
51%
Deutz 1+ goals
75%
Deutz 2+ goals
40%
Deutz 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

VfL Vichttal (draw refunded)
79%
Deutz (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Vichttal at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.65 · 81 matches

Deutz away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Vichttal attack 2.81 + Deutz defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.75

Deutz attack 1.11 + VfL Vichttal defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

VfL Vichttal scores more
66%
level
17%
Deutz scores more
17%

VfL Vichttal at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "VfL Vichttal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: VfL Vichttal host Deutz

June 3, 2021: VfL Vichttal take on Deutz in Oberliga - Mittelrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

VfL Vichttal host Deutz at Sportplatz Dörenberg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.