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Deutz vs VfL Vichttal — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Deutz
Deutz
CANC
14:30
VfL Vichttal
VfL Vichttal
2/21/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 15SV Deutz Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Deutz24%
×Draw20%
VfL Vichttal56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deutz
1.44
VfL Vichttal
2.29

VfL Vichttal creates 59% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 79 away

creates per match

Deutz
1.10
VfL Vichttal
1.92

allows per match

Deutz
2.67
VfL Vichttal
1.78

finishing

Deutz+0.00on par
VfL Vichttal+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deutz ↓

VfL Vichttal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Deutz or draw
44%
Deutz or VfL Vichttal
80%
Draw or VfL Vichttal
76%

Winning margin

Deutz wins by 2+
10%
VfL Vichttal wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Deutz 1+ goals
76%
Deutz 2+ goals
42%
Deutz 3+ goals
18%
VfL Vichttal 1+ goals
90%
VfL Vichttal 2+ goals
66%
VfL Vichttal 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Deutz (draw refunded)
30%
VfL Vichttal (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deutz at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.67 · 21 matches

VfL Vichttal away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.78 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deutz attack 1.10 + VfL Vichttal defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.44

VfL Vichttal attack 1.92 + Deutz defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deutz scores more
24%
level
20%
VfL Vichttal scores more
56%

VfL Vichttal at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "VfL Vichttal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deutz host VfL Vichttal

February 21, 2021: Deutz take on VfL Vichttal in Oberliga - Mittelrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deutz host VfL Vichttal at SV Deutz Kunstrasenplatz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.