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VfL Vichttal vs Alfter — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

VfL Vichttal
VfL Vichttal
CANC
14:00
Alfter
Alfter
12/13/2020Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 13Sportplatz Dörenberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

VfL Vichttal52%
×Draw20%
Alfter27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Vichttal
2.27
Alfter
1.61

VfL Vichttal creates 41% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 19 away

creates per match

VfL Vichttal
2.81
Alfter
1.58

allows per match

VfL Vichttal
1.65
Alfter
1.74

finishing

VfL Vichttal+0.00on par
Alfter+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Vichttal ↓

Alfter →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

VfL Vichttal or draw
73%
VfL Vichttal or Alfter
80%
Draw or Alfter
48%

Winning margin

VfL Vichttal wins by 2+
32%
Alfter wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

VfL Vichttal 1+ goals
90%
VfL Vichttal 2+ goals
66%
VfL Vichttal 3+ goals
39%
Alfter 1+ goals
80%
Alfter 2+ goals
48%
Alfter 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

VfL Vichttal (draw refunded)
66%
Alfter (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Vichttal at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.65 · 81 matches

Alfter away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Vichttal attack 2.81 + Alfter defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.27

Alfter attack 1.58 + VfL Vichttal defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

VfL Vichttal scores more
52%
level
20%
Alfter scores more
27%

VfL Vichttal at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "VfL Vichttal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

VfL Vichttal face Alfter (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)

Oberliga - Mittelrhein returns with VfL Vichttal hosting Alfter. Match starts December 13, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

VfL Vichttal host Alfter at Sportplatz Dörenberg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.