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Alfter vs VfL Vichttal — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Alfter
Alfter
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
VfL Vichttal
VfL Vichttal
3/20/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 22Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Alfter39%
×Draw23%
VfL Vichttal39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfter
1.73
VfL Vichttal
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 79 away

creates per match

Alfter
1.68
VfL Vichttal
1.92

allows per match

Alfter
1.55
VfL Vichttal
1.78

finishing

Alfter+0.00on par
VfL Vichttal+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfter ↓

VfL Vichttal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Alfter or draw
61%
Alfter or VfL Vichttal
77%
Draw or VfL Vichttal
61%

Winning margin

Alfter wins by 2+
20%
VfL Vichttal wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Alfter 1+ goals
82%
Alfter 2+ goals
52%
Alfter 3+ goals
25%
VfL Vichttal 1+ goals
82%
VfL Vichttal 2+ goals
52%
VfL Vichttal 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Alfter (draw refunded)
50%
VfL Vichttal (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfter at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

VfL Vichttal away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.78 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfter attack 1.68 + VfL Vichttal defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.73

VfL Vichttal attack 1.92 + Alfter defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alfter scores more
39%
level
23%
VfL Vichttal scores more
39%

Alfter at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alfter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Alfter 1–0 VfL Vichttal

Alfter beat VfL Vichttal 1-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Waldstadion in Alfter.