Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

VfL Osnabruck vs SV Elversberg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

VfL Osnabruck
VfL Osnabruck
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
9/3/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 5Bremer Brücke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

VfL Osnabruck30%
×Draw24%
SV Elversberg46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Osnabruck
1.28
SV Elversberg
1.63

SV Elversberg creates 27% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 51 away

creates per match

VfL Osnabruck
1.15
SV Elversberg
1.57

allows per match

VfL Osnabruck
1.69
SV Elversberg
1.41

finishing

VfL Osnabruck+0.00on par
SV Elversberg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Osnabruck ↓

SV Elversberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

VfL Osnabruck or draw
54%
VfL Osnabruck or SV Elversberg
76%
Draw or SV Elversberg
70%

Winning margin

VfL Osnabruck wins by 2+
13%
SV Elversberg wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

VfL Osnabruck 1+ goals
72%
VfL Osnabruck 2+ goals
37%
VfL Osnabruck 3+ goals
14%
SV Elversberg 1+ goals
80%
SV Elversberg 2+ goals
48%
SV Elversberg 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

VfL Osnabruck (draw refunded)
40%
SV Elversberg (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Osnabruck at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 52 matches

SV Elversberg away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Osnabruck attack 1.15 + SV Elversberg defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

SV Elversberg attack 1.57 + VfL Osnabruck defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

VfL Osnabruck scores more
30%
level
24%
SV Elversberg scores more
46%

SV Elversberg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SV Elversberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VfL Osnabruck vs SV Elversberg

SV Elversberg beat VfL Osnabruck 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Bremer Brücke in Osnabrück.