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SV Elversberg vs VfL Osnabruck — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
VfL Osnabruck
VfL Osnabruck
2/18/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 22URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

SV Elversberg52%
×Draw23%
VfL Osnabruck25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Elversberg
1.82
VfL Osnabruck
1.19

SV Elversberg creates 53% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

creates per match

SV Elversberg
1.90
VfL Osnabruck
1.06

allows per match

SV Elversberg
1.31
VfL Osnabruck
1.75

finishing

SV Elversberg+0.00on par
VfL Osnabruck+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Elversberg ↓

VfL Osnabruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

SV Elversberg or draw
75%
SV Elversberg or VfL Osnabruck
77%
Draw or VfL Osnabruck
48%

Winning margin

SV Elversberg wins by 2+
29%
VfL Osnabruck wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SV Elversberg 1+ goals
84%
SV Elversberg 2+ goals
54%
SV Elversberg 3+ goals
27%
VfL Osnabruck 1+ goals
70%
VfL Osnabruck 2+ goals
33%
VfL Osnabruck 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SV Elversberg (draw refunded)
68%
VfL Osnabruck (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Elversberg at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

VfL Osnabruck away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Elversberg attack 1.90 + VfL Osnabruck defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.82

VfL Osnabruck attack 1.06 + SV Elversberg defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SV Elversberg scores more
52%
level
23%
VfL Osnabruck scores more
25%

SV Elversberg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SV Elversberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: SV Elversberg 3–1 VfL Osnabruck

SV Elversberg beat VfL Osnabruck 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in Spiesen-Elversberg.