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VfL Osnabruck vs Karlsruher SC — 2. Bundesliga 2018

VfL Osnabruck
VfL Osnabruck
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Karlsruher SC
Karlsruher SC
7/29/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 1Bremer Brücke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

VfL Osnabruck35%
×Draw24%
Karlsruher SC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Osnabruck
1.43
Karlsruher SC
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 119 away

creates per match

VfL Osnabruck
1.15
Karlsruher SC
1.43

allows per match

VfL Osnabruck
1.69
Karlsruher SC
1.71

finishing

VfL Osnabruck+0.00on par
Karlsruher SC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Osnabruck ↓

Karlsruher SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

VfL Osnabruck or draw
59%
VfL Osnabruck or Karlsruher SC
76%
Draw or Karlsruher SC
65%

Winning margin

VfL Osnabruck wins by 2+
16%
Karlsruher SC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

VfL Osnabruck 1+ goals
76%
VfL Osnabruck 2+ goals
42%
VfL Osnabruck 3+ goals
17%
Karlsruher SC 1+ goals
79%
Karlsruher SC 2+ goals
46%
Karlsruher SC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

VfL Osnabruck (draw refunded)
46%
Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Osnabruck at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 52 matches

Karlsruher SC away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.71 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Osnabruck attack 1.15 + Karlsruher SC defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.43

Karlsruher SC attack 1.43 + VfL Osnabruck defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

VfL Osnabruck scores more
35%
level
24%
Karlsruher SC scores more
41%

Karlsruher SC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Karlsruher SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VfL Osnabruck vs Karlsruher SC

Karlsruher SC beat VfL Osnabruck 3-2 in 2. Bundesliga on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Bremer Brücke in Osnabrück.