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Karlsruher SC vs VfL Osnabruck — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Karlsruher SC
Karlsruher SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
VfL Osnabruck
VfL Osnabruck
2/16/20202. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 22Wildparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Karlsruher SC50%
×Draw23%
VfL Osnabruck27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlsruher SC
1.77
VfL Osnabruck
1.25

Karlsruher SC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 52 away

creates per match

Karlsruher SC
1.80
VfL Osnabruck
1.06

allows per match

Karlsruher SC
1.45
VfL Osnabruck
1.75

finishing

Karlsruher SC+0.00on par
VfL Osnabruck+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC ↓

VfL Osnabruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC or draw
73%
Karlsruher SC or VfL Osnabruck
77%
Draw or VfL Osnabruck
50%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC wins by 2+
27%
VfL Osnabruck wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC 1+ goals
83%
Karlsruher SC 2+ goals
53%
Karlsruher SC 3+ goals
26%
VfL Osnabruck 1+ goals
71%
VfL Osnabruck 2+ goals
36%
VfL Osnabruck 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)
65%
VfL Osnabruck (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

VfL Osnabruck away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC attack 1.80 + VfL Osnabruck defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.77

VfL Osnabruck attack 1.06 + Karlsruher SC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Karlsruher SC scores more
50%
level
23%
VfL Osnabruck scores more
27%

Karlsruher SC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Karlsruher SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Karlsruher SC 1–1 VfL Osnabruck

Karlsruher SC and VfL Osnabruck drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Wildparkstadion in Karlsruhe.