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VfL Osnabruck vs Holstein Kiel — 2. Bundesliga 2018

VfL Osnabruck
VfL Osnabruck
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
6/21/20202. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 33Bremer Brücke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

VfL Osnabruck31%
×Draw24%
Holstein Kiel45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Osnabruck
1.33
Holstein Kiel
1.64

Holstein Kiel creates 23% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 119 away

creates per match

VfL Osnabruck
1.15
Holstein Kiel
1.59

allows per match

VfL Osnabruck
1.69
Holstein Kiel
1.52

finishing

VfL Osnabruck+0.00on par
Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Osnabruck ↓

Holstein Kiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

VfL Osnabruck or draw
55%
VfL Osnabruck or Holstein Kiel
76%
Draw or Holstein Kiel
69%

Winning margin

VfL Osnabruck wins by 2+
14%
Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

VfL Osnabruck 1+ goals
74%
VfL Osnabruck 2+ goals
38%
VfL Osnabruck 3+ goals
15%
Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
81%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
49%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

VfL Osnabruck (draw refunded)
41%
Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Osnabruck at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 52 matches

Holstein Kiel away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.52 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Osnabruck attack 1.15 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.33

Holstein Kiel attack 1.59 + VfL Osnabruck defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

VfL Osnabruck scores more
31%
level
24%
Holstein Kiel scores more
45%

Holstein Kiel at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VfL Osnabruck vs Holstein Kiel

VfL Osnabruck beat Holstein Kiel 4-1 in 2. Bundesliga on June 21, 2020.

The match was played at Bremer Brücke in Osnabrück.