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Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabruck — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
VfL Osnabruck
VfL Osnabruck
1/3/20212. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 14Holstein-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Holstein Kiel48%
×Draw24%
VfL Osnabruck28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holstein Kiel
1.69
VfL Osnabruck
1.22

Holstein Kiel creates 39% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 52 away

creates per match

Holstein Kiel
1.63
VfL Osnabruck
1.06

allows per match

Holstein Kiel
1.37
VfL Osnabruck
1.75

finishing

Holstein Kiel+0.00on par
VfL Osnabruck+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel ↓

VfL Osnabruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel or draw
72%
Holstein Kiel or VfL Osnabruck
76%
Draw or VfL Osnabruck
52%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
26%
VfL Osnabruck wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
82%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
50%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
24%
VfL Osnabruck 1+ goals
70%
VfL Osnabruck 2+ goals
34%
VfL Osnabruck 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
64%
VfL Osnabruck (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

VfL Osnabruck away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel attack 1.63 + VfL Osnabruck defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.69

VfL Osnabruck attack 1.06 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Holstein Kiel scores more
48%
level
24%
VfL Osnabruck scores more
28%

Holstein Kiel at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabruck

VfL Osnabruck beat Holstein Kiel 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on January 3, 2021.

The match was played at Holstein-Stadion in Kiel.