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VfL Osnabruck vs Fortuna Dusseldorf — 2. Bundesliga 2018

VfL Osnabruck
VfL Osnabruck
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Fortuna Dusseldorf
Fortuna Dusseldorf
4/18/20212. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 29Bremer Brücke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

VfL Osnabruck32%
×Draw25%
Fortuna Dusseldorf43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Osnabruck
1.27
Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.53

Fortuna Dusseldorf creates 20% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 102 away

creates per match

VfL Osnabruck
1.15
Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.38

allows per match

VfL Osnabruck
1.69
Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.39

finishing

VfL Osnabruck+0.00on par
Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Osnabruck ↓

Fortuna Dusseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

VfL Osnabruck or draw
57%
VfL Osnabruck or Fortuna Dusseldorf
75%
Draw or Fortuna Dusseldorf
68%

Winning margin

VfL Osnabruck wins by 2+
13%
Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

VfL Osnabruck 1+ goals
72%
VfL Osnabruck 2+ goals
36%
VfL Osnabruck 3+ goals
14%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals
78%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals
45%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

VfL Osnabruck (draw refunded)
42%
Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Osnabruck at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 52 matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.39 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Osnabruck attack 1.15 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.27

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.38 + VfL Osnabruck defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

VfL Osnabruck scores more
32%
level
25%
Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more
43%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VfL Osnabruck vs Fortuna Dusseldorf

Fortuna Dusseldorf beat VfL Osnabruck 3-0 in 2. Bundesliga on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Bremer Brücke in Osnabrück.