Fortuna Dusseldorf 3–0 VfL Osnabruck

Fortuna Dusseldorf

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

VfL Osnabruck

12/16/2020

2. Bundesliga · Round 12Merkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf51%

×Draw24%

VfL Osnabruck26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna DusseldorfExpected goals in this matchVfL Osnabruck

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.19

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.76

VfL Osnabruck

1.19

Fortuna Dusseldorf creates 48% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 52 away

1.77

creates per match

1.06

1.31

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.77

VfL Osnabruck

1.06

allows per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.31

VfL Osnabruck

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par

VfL Osnabruck+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Dusseldorf ↓

VfL Osnabruck →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Fortuna Dusseldorf or draw

74%

Fortuna Dusseldorf or VfL Osnabruck

76%

Draw or VfL Osnabruck

49%

Winning margin

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+

28%

VfL Osnabruck wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals

83%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals

52%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals

26%

VfL Osnabruck 1+ goals

70%

VfL Osnabruck 2+ goals

33%

VfL Osnabruck 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)

66%

VfL Osnabruck (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Dusseldorf at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.31 · 102 matches

VfL Osnabruck away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.77 + VfL Osnabruck defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.76

VfL Osnabruck attack 1.06 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more

51%

level

24%

VfL Osnabruck scores more

26%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff