VfL Halle 1–1 Krieschow: Result & Stats

VfL Halle

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Krieschow

3/3/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 19HWG-Stadion am Zoo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

VfL Halle42%

×Draw22%

Krieschow36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL HalleExpected goals in this matchKrieschow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.69

VfL Halle

1.84

Krieschow

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 81 away

2.04

creates per match

2.00

1.37

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

VfL Halle

2.04

Krieschow

2.00

allows per match

VfL Halle

1.37

Krieschow

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfL Halle+0.00on par

Krieschow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Halle ↓

Krieschow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

VfL Halle or draw

64%

VfL Halle or Krieschow

78%

Draw or Krieschow

58%

Winning margin

VfL Halle wins by 2+

22%

Krieschow wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

VfL Halle 1+ goals

84%

VfL Halle 2+ goals

55%

VfL Halle 3+ goals

28%

Krieschow 1+ goals

82%

Krieschow 2+ goals

50%

Krieschow 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

VfL Halle (draw refunded)

54%

Krieschow (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Halle at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

Krieschow away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.64 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Halle attack 2.04 + Krieschow defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.84

Krieschow attack 2.00 + VfL Halle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

VfL Halle scores more

42%

level

22%

Krieschow scores more

36%

VfL Halle at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "VfL Halle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff