Krieschow 3–0 VfL Halle: Result & Stats

Krieschow

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

VfL Halle

3/2/2025

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 19Sportpark Krieschow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Krieschow53%

×Draw21%

VfL Halle26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KrieschowExpected goals in this matchVfL Halle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.44

Krieschow

2.13

VfL Halle

1.44

Krieschow creates 48% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 81 away

2.51

creates per match

1.62

1.26

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Krieschow

2.51

VfL Halle

1.62

allows per match

Krieschow

1.26

VfL Halle

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krieschow+0.00on par

VfL Halle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krieschow ↓

VfL Halle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Krieschow or draw

74%

Krieschow or VfL Halle

79%

Draw or VfL Halle

47%

Winning margin

Krieschow wins by 2+

32%

VfL Halle wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Krieschow 1+ goals

88%

Krieschow 2+ goals

63%

Krieschow 3+ goals

35%

VfL Halle 1+ goals

76%

VfL Halle 2+ goals

42%

VfL Halle 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Krieschow (draw refunded)

67%

VfL Halle (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krieschow at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.26 · 81 matches

VfL Halle away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.75 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krieschow attack 2.51 + VfL Halle defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.13

VfL Halle attack 1.62 + Krieschow defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Krieschow scores more

53%

level

21%

VfL Halle scores more

26%

Krieschow at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Krieschow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff