VfL Halle 3–2 Einheit Wernigerode: Result & Stats

VfL Halle

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Einheit Wernigerode

5/25/2025

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 29HWG-Stadion am Zoo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

VfL Halle54%

×Draw21%

Einheit Wernigerode25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL HalleExpected goals in this matchEinheit Wernigerode

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.38

VfL Halle

2.13

Einheit Wernigerode

1.38

VfL Halle creates 54% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 77 away

2.04

creates per match

1.39

1.37

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

VfL Halle

2.04

Einheit Wernigerode

1.39

allows per match

VfL Halle

1.37

Einheit Wernigerode

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfL Halle+0.00on par

Einheit Wernigerode+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Halle ↓

Einheit Wernigerode →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

VfL Halle or draw

75%

VfL Halle or Einheit Wernigerode

79%

Draw or Einheit Wernigerode

46%

Winning margin

VfL Halle wins by 2+

33%

Einheit Wernigerode wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

VfL Halle 1+ goals

88%

VfL Halle 2+ goals

63%

VfL Halle 3+ goals

35%

Einheit Wernigerode 1+ goals

75%

Einheit Wernigerode 2+ goals

40%

Einheit Wernigerode 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

VfL Halle (draw refunded)

69%

Einheit Wernigerode (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Halle at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

Einheit Wernigerode away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.21 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Halle attack 2.04 + Einheit Wernigerode defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.13

Einheit Wernigerode attack 1.39 + VfL Halle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

VfL Halle scores more

54%

level

21%

Einheit Wernigerode scores more

25%

VfL Halle at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "VfL Halle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff