Einheit Wernigerode 4–2 VfL Halle: Result & Stats

Einheit Wernigerode

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

VfL Halle

2/10/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 16Sportplatz Mannsbergstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Einheit Wernigerode43%

×Draw22%

VfL Halle36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Einheit WernigerodeExpected goals in this matchVfL Halle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.77

Einheit Wernigerode

1.94

VfL Halle

1.77

Einheit Wernigerode creates 10% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 81 away

2.12

creates per match

1.62

1.92

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Einheit Wernigerode

2.12

VfL Halle

1.62

allows per match

Einheit Wernigerode

1.92

VfL Halle

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Einheit Wernigerode+0.00on par

VfL Halle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Einheit Wernigerode ↓

VfL Halle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Einheit Wernigerode or draw

64%

Einheit Wernigerode or VfL Halle

78%

Draw or VfL Halle

57%

Winning margin

Einheit Wernigerode wins by 2+

23%

VfL Halle wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Einheit Wernigerode 1+ goals

86%

Einheit Wernigerode 2+ goals

58%

Einheit Wernigerode 3+ goals

30%

VfL Halle 1+ goals

83%

VfL Halle 2+ goals

53%

VfL Halle 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Einheit Wernigerode (draw refunded)

54%

VfL Halle (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Einheit Wernigerode at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.92 · 77 matches

VfL Halle away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.75 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Einheit Wernigerode attack 2.12 + VfL Halle defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.94

VfL Halle attack 1.62 + Einheit Wernigerode defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Einheit Wernigerode scores more

43%

level

22%

VfL Halle scores more

36%

Einheit Wernigerode at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Einheit Wernigerode will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff