Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

VfL Halle vs Carl Zeiss Jena II — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

VfL Halle
VfL Halle
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Carl Zeiss Jena II
Carl Zeiss Jena II
4/16/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 24HWG-Stadion am Zoo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

VfL Halle47%
×Draw22%
Carl Zeiss Jena II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Halle
1.95
Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.57

VfL Halle creates 24% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 22 away

creates per match

VfL Halle
2.04
Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.77

allows per match

VfL Halle
1.37
Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.86

finishing

VfL Halle+0.00on par
Carl Zeiss Jena II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Halle ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

VfL Halle or draw
69%
VfL Halle or Carl Zeiss Jena II
78%
Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena II
53%

Winning margin

VfL Halle wins by 2+
26%
Carl Zeiss Jena II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

VfL Halle 1+ goals
86%
VfL Halle 2+ goals
58%
VfL Halle 3+ goals
31%
Carl Zeiss Jena II 1+ goals
79%
Carl Zeiss Jena II 2+ goals
46%
Carl Zeiss Jena II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

VfL Halle (draw refunded)
60%
Carl Zeiss Jena II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Halle at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Halle attack 2.04 + Carl Zeiss Jena II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.95

Carl Zeiss Jena II attack 1.77 + VfL Halle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

VfL Halle scores more
47%
level
22%
Carl Zeiss Jena II scores more
31%

VfL Halle at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "VfL Halle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VfL Halle vs Carl Zeiss Jena II

VfL Halle and Carl Zeiss Jena II drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at HWG-Stadion am Zoo in Saale.