Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Carl Zeiss Jena II vs VfL Halle — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Carl Zeiss Jena II
Carl Zeiss Jena II
CANC
13:00
VfL Halle
VfL Halle
3/21/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 24Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Carl Zeiss Jena II34%
×Draw24%
VfL Halle42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.43
VfL Halle
1.60

VfL Halle creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 81 away

creates per match

Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.11
VfL Halle
1.62

allows per match

Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.58
VfL Halle
1.75

finishing

Carl Zeiss Jena II+0.00on par
VfL Halle+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carl Zeiss Jena II ↓

VfL Halle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Carl Zeiss Jena II or draw
58%
Carl Zeiss Jena II or VfL Halle
76%
Draw or VfL Halle
66%

Winning margin

Carl Zeiss Jena II wins by 2+
16%
VfL Halle wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Carl Zeiss Jena II 1+ goals
76%
Carl Zeiss Jena II 2+ goals
42%
Carl Zeiss Jena II 3+ goals
17%
VfL Halle 1+ goals
80%
VfL Halle 2+ goals
47%
VfL Halle 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Carl Zeiss Jena II (draw refunded)
45%
VfL Halle (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carl Zeiss Jena II at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

VfL Halle away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.75 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carl Zeiss Jena II attack 1.11 + VfL Halle defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.43

VfL Halle attack 1.62 + Carl Zeiss Jena II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Carl Zeiss Jena II scores more
34%
level
24%
VfL Halle scores more
42%

VfL Halle at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "VfL Halle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Carl Zeiss Jena II host VfL Halle

March 21, 2021: Carl Zeiss Jena II take on VfL Halle in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Carl Zeiss Jena II host VfL Halle at Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.