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VfL Halle vs 1. FC Merseburg — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

VfL Halle
VfL Halle
CANC
12:30
1. FC Merseburg
1. FC Merseburg
2/27/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 17HWG-Stadion am Zoo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

VfL Halle74%
×Draw15%
1. FC Merseburg11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Halle
2.65
1. FC Merseburg
0.90

VfL Halle creates 194% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 12 away

creates per match

VfL Halle
2.04
1. FC Merseburg
0.42

allows per match

VfL Halle
1.37
1. FC Merseburg
3.25

finishing

VfL Halle+0.00on par
1. FC Merseburg+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Halle ↓

1. FC Merseburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

VfL Halle or draw
89%
VfL Halle or 1. FC Merseburg
85%
Draw or 1. FC Merseburg
26%

Winning margin

VfL Halle wins by 2+
53%
1. FC Merseburg wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

VfL Halle 1+ goals
93%
VfL Halle 2+ goals
74%
VfL Halle 3+ goals
48%
1. FC Merseburg 1+ goals
59%
1. FC Merseburg 2+ goals
23%
1. FC Merseburg 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

VfL Halle (draw refunded)
88%
1. FC Merseburg (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Halle at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

1. FC Merseburg away — creates 0.42, concedes 3.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Halle attack 2.04 + 1. FC Merseburg defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.65

1. FC Merseburg attack 0.42 + VfL Halle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

VfL Halle scores more
74%
level
15%
1. FC Merseburg scores more
11%

VfL Halle at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "VfL Halle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

VfL Halle vs 1. FC Merseburg — Match Preview

VfL Halle face 1. FC Merseburg on February 27, 2022 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Süd fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

VfL Halle host 1. FC Merseburg at HWG-Stadion am Zoo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.