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1. FC Merseburg vs VfL Halle — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

1. FC Merseburg
1. FC Merseburg
CANC
12:00
VfL Halle
VfL Halle
4/11/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 26Sportplatz Ulmenweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

1. FC Merseburg26%
×Draw24%
VfL Halle50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Merseburg
1.15
VfL Halle
1.68

VfL Halle creates 46% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 81 away

creates per match

1. FC Merseburg
0.55
VfL Halle
1.62

allows per match

1. FC Merseburg
1.73
VfL Halle
1.75

finishing

1. FC Merseburg+0.00on par
VfL Halle+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Merseburg ↓

VfL Halle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

1. FC Merseburg or draw
50%
1. FC Merseburg or VfL Halle
76%
Draw or VfL Halle
74%

Winning margin

1. FC Merseburg wins by 2+
10%
VfL Halle wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

1. FC Merseburg 1+ goals
68%
1. FC Merseburg 2+ goals
32%
1. FC Merseburg 3+ goals
11%
VfL Halle 1+ goals
81%
VfL Halle 2+ goals
50%
VfL Halle 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

1. FC Merseburg (draw refunded)
34%
VfL Halle (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Merseburg at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

VfL Halle away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.75 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Merseburg attack 0.55 + VfL Halle defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.15

VfL Halle attack 1.62 + 1. FC Merseburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

1. FC Merseburg scores more
26%
level
24%
VfL Halle scores more
50%

VfL Halle at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "VfL Halle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. FC Merseburg face VfL Halle (Oberliga - Nordost-Süd)

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd returns with 1. FC Merseburg hosting VfL Halle. Match starts April 11, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

1. FC Merseburg host VfL Halle at Sportplatz Ulmenweg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.